Technology Improves Lives By Generating More Output From Less Labor. The Government’s PPP Aims To Achieve The Opposite.
They would stop you at job creation. Who would? Venture capitalists and other capital allocators if, when presenting your new business idea, you led with how many jobs the venture would create.
No one starts a business to put people to work. It should more realistically be stated that every commercial and technological advance is all about shrinking the amount of labor required to achieve some kind of laudatory outcome. Technology is the process whereby machines and other advances produce exponentially more with fewer hands.
This is so often forgotten by economic types on the left and right as they obsess over “labor force participation” rates. How very backwards. If readers are looking for 100% labor force participation, just travel to the world’s poorest countries. Everyone is realistically working all the time. Life is defined by unrelenting drudgery.
In rich, economically advanced countries work is the norm, but more and more it’s a choice as opposed to a necessity. There are dual-earner couples, and people who work until their dying day not because doing so is a matter of survival, but because work itself brings its own rewards.
Crucial is that work is most rewarding in the parts of the world where jobs are destroyed the most rapidly. Looking at it in terms of the United States, “what do you do?” in 2020 would elicit wildly different answers relative to 1920 when agriculture was still a major part of the U.S. economy, but so would the answer have been very different in 1990, 2000, and 2010.
In rich countries what we call work is constantly changing precisely because technological advances mothball the toil of the past. Contrast that with the poorest countries where “what do you do?” results in the same answer for all-too-many year after year, and decade after decade.
Which brings us to the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP). As always, this plan from our federal minders will have attached to it the non sequitur description that it most certainly rates. No one was clamoring for a PPP two months ago simply because politicians at that point hadn’t happened on the shockingly dim idea whereby they would engineer mass unemployment, business bankruptcy, and desperation as the solution to a new virus.
About the U.S. economy pre-coronavirus, it’s not as though businesses weren’t failing then. In truth, they were going under with great regularity. Such is the way of a dynamic economy: endless experimentation conducted by entrepreneurs, and as a consequence, lots of businesses shuttering all the time. Lest readers forget, growing use of the internet already had certain retailers under the gun.
Needless to say, a certain sign of economic sclerosis is a static business scenario whereby the ones populating malls and other shopping areas are unchanging. Conversely, somewhat rapid turnover signals progress as the present is constantly replaced by the future. In short, with or without the coronavirus, the nature of work and the names of businesses meeting our needs was going to change markedly between 2020 and 2030, and just as reasonably, between 2020 and 2025. Market driven failure is progress.
Back to the rollout of the PPP, it once again wasn’t being called for two months ago even though the future for most businesses was far from certain. But with the forced lockdowns by politicians that wrecked the present and future of all manner of businesses indiscriminately, and for reasons that had nothing to do with “free markets,” government stepped in to throw the money of others at what it broke. The PPP shows yet again why government cannot – ever – play investor, lender, or any kind of resource allocator.
Indeed, with politicians having cruelly put tens of millions out of work as a consequence of bankrupting businesses with their lockdowns, the PPP was created by government so that businesses could rehire some of the very people government had rendered unemployed. And in classic government fashion, this non sequitur of a program required that 75% of the PPP funds go toward employee pay. Maintain jobs at all costs!
That’s how people in government think. In state and national capitols, it’s all about doing less with more people. Hiring to hire. Don’t you get it, hiring without regard to the purpose of the job creates “economic growth”! Actually, productivity powers economic growth, which is why businesses routinely strive to do more with fewer hands. Technology enables all this.
Looking at the present, for many businesses their biggest expenses are rent related, and physical infrastructure. This is particularly true in prosperous cities. A business close to the well-to-do is in some instances going to pay quite a bit more just to be in that location, than to employees working in, say, Beverly Hills, Greenwich, or River Oaks.
Which speaks to why the PPP in so many instances cripples, as oppose to reviving businesses. That’s the case because there’s no present way of knowing what the future will look like for companies in terms of human employees. Precisely because some consumers will prefer less human interaction in the future with virus-spreading top of mind, it’s possible that businesses will devise all manner of ways to save on labor while meeting needs of customers that they didn’t express before the spread of the coronavirus.
After that, let’s not forget that businesses will to some degree be impaired going forward simply because previously locked down consumers will be. For government to demand pre-virus levels of employment as a pre-condition of receiving PPP money is for government to set the stage for business failure just as soon as these hideous and unnecessary lockdowns end.
All of which brings us back to the venture capitalists, investors and lenders who will decide whether cruelly impaired businesses will make it in the aftermath of this most political of crack-ups. About the future, it should be said yet again “they would stop you at jobs.” No business will attract funds if it presumes to operate at staffing levels that perhaps made sense before March of 2020.
It’s all a reminder of the persistent truth that’s informed all of these columns since politicians on all levels lost their minds: government cannot ever play investor, lender, or anything else. Crucial is that it needn’t play those roles. The only answer, as always, is to end the lockdowns as soon as possible so that businesses can resume with market-disciplined investors and the marketplace itself guiding their decisions.
John Tamny is editor of RealClearMarkets, and Vice President at FreedomWorks.
Do we know how economies develop? Obviously not, it seems, or otherwise every country would be doing better than it currently is in these low-growth times. In fact, cases of sustained rapid growth, like Japan beginning in the 1960s, or other Southeast Asian countries a decade later, are so rare that they are often described as “economic miracles.”
Yet when Patrick Collison of software infrastructure company Stripe and Tyler Cowen of George Mason University recently wrote an article in The Atlantic calling for a bold new interdisciplinary “science of progress,” they stirred up a flurry of righteous indignation among academics.
Many pointed to the vast amount of academic and applied research that already addresses what Collison and Cowen propose to include in a new discipline of “Progress Studies.” Today, armies of economists are researching issues such as what explains the location of technology clusters like Silicon Valley, why the Industrial Revolution happened when it did, or why some organizations are much more productive and innovative than others. As the University of Oxford’s Gina Neff recently remarked on Twitter, the Industrial Revolution even gave birth to sociology, or what she called “Progress Studies 1.0.”
This is all true, and yet Collison and Cowen are on to something. Academic researchers clearly find it hard to work together across disciplinary boundaries, despite repeated calls for them to do so more often. This is largely the result of incentives that encourage academics to specialize in ever-narrower areas, so that they can produce the publications that will lead to promotion and professional esteem. The world has problems, as the old saying puts it, but universities have departments. Interdisciplinary research institutes like mine and Neff’s therefore have to consider carefully how best to advance the careers of younger colleagues. The same silo problem arises in government, which is likewise organized by departments.
Moreover, fashions in research can lead to hugely disproportionate intellectual efforts in specific areas. To take one example, the ethics of artificial intelligence is clearly an important subject, but is it really the dominant research challenge today, even in the fields of AI or ethics? The financial incentives embedded in technology companies’ business models seem to me at least as important as morality in explaining these firms’ behavior.
At the same time, some important economic questions are curiously underexplored. For example, in his recent book The Technology Trap, Carl Frey expands on his gloomy view of what automation will mean for the jobs of the future, pointing to the adverse effects that the original Industrial Revolution had on the typical worker. Yet Frey also notes that a later period of automation, the era of mass production in the mid-twentieth century, was one of high employment and increasingly broad-based prosperity. What explains the great difference between those two eras?
Today, the role of research in changing behavior – whether that of government officials or of businesses and citizens – is part of the broader crisis of legitimacy in Western democracies. By the early 2000s, technocrats – and economists in particular – ruled the roost, and governments delegated large swaths of policy to independent expert bodies such as central banks and utility regulators. But then came the 2008 global financial crisis. With real incomes stagnating for many, and “deaths of despair” increasing, it is not surprising that expertise has lost its luster for much of the public.
This leads to a final point about the need for a science of progress: what do we actually mean by “progress”? How should it be measured and monitored, and who experiences it? For many reasons, the standard indicator of real GDP growth, which leaves out much of what people value, will no longer do.
The debate about progress therefore raises profound political and philosophical questions about the kind of societies we want. If the global economy falls into recession, as now seems likely, then social divisions and political polarization will intensify further. And the clear message since the turn of the millennium is that if most people do not experience progress, then society isn’t really progressing at all.
Current academic research – into the impact of new technologies, the economics of innovation, and the quality of management, for example – may be providing ever more pieces of the puzzle. But many crucial questions about economic progress remain unanswered, and others have not yet even been properly posed.